Short Read:

The UK Government has already stated in October 2016 it will not negotiate any special deals for Scotland therefore, it cannot guarantee that a good deal for the UK is, by default, a good deal for Scotland. It is possible to know what the deal will look like before the end of Article 50 negotiations so Scotland needs to have the option of independence should the UK Government not get the best deal for Scotland.

Long Read:

Theresa May has played her one, most powerful and, only card against a new referendum today.

She told Scotland they weren't having one...well...not right now. It kind of has the sound of a jilted lover who has been told by the dumper that maybe one day they'll get back together. Not right now but, maybe, in the future.

Now it is a test of two narratives and Theresa May has the harder battle to fight.

I'm not just saying this because of where I work. I am saying this because her argument is harder to maintain.

Where Nicola Sturgeon has a independence majority in the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish vote to remain in the EU, Theresa has one MP in Scotland and a Scottish Tory party on 22% of the vote.

Core to the argument of the Prime Minister is that, "We need to ensure we are putting our energies into getting the right deal with the European Union" That is a great sentiment but it doesn't make any sense.

If the UK Government is playing this card at this time, they should have at least offered the Scottish Government a seat at the negotiating table today but, that was not an option. At present, just like in other EU negotiations (see fishing).

There is no way the Scottish Government or Parliament can have any influence on the outcome of the negotiations if they are not in the room and, if they are not in the room, there is no guarantee that the UK Government is arguing the best deal for Scotland.

I have no doubt that the UK Government will argue the best deal for the UK but, that does not immediately translate into a good deal for Scotland.

We already know that the UK Government will negotiate special deals for the banking sector and the car industry however; while these are important sectors Scotland has other sectors that are important as well.A good banking sector deal, for example, may help out London but, does not guarantee a boost to the banking sector in Edinburgh. A position ever more damaged by the lack of Scottish representation in Brexit negotiations.

Without serious representation at the negotiation table Theresa May's words are hollow. A good deal for the UK is really, honestly, a good deal for the South-East and places where people make cars.

Theresa May's constant use of "we" in her response today also shows that she wants the people of Scotland to feel like she is going to work for them but, seeing as Scotland has been voting SNP more and more over the past 10 years it is a hard line to sell. Especially as a Conservative.

Finally, her failure to give an answer as to when a good time for the referendum would be is even more proof of her real intentions.

For if there is no idea of when a referendum should be held, it stands to assume that the Prime Minister may never allow another referendum again. This way she gets to keep Scotland in the backyard and the people of Scotland cannot do that much about it.

...for now....